Surplus and Steady: Ethiopia’s Balance-of-Payments Turn

A trade surplus in a country that imports most of what it consumes is the kind of result that deserves a second look before a celebration. Ethiopia has recorded one — a balance-of-payments surplus built on stronger exports and transfers — and the National Bank of...

Diverging Rates: Reading Ethiopia’s Liquidity Squeeze

When two interest rates that should move together start moving apart, the gap is telling you something the headline rate will not. In Ethiopia today, the government can borrow short-term money at 12.4 percent while banks lending to one another are paying 19.7 percent....

Inflation Halves: What 9.7 Percent Means for Borrowing in Ethiopia

Falling inflation is usually reported as relief. For anyone deciding whether to borrow, it is better understood as a change in the terms of a bet. When prices were climbing at more than fifteen percent a year, debt quietly forgave itself — every month of inflation...

The Crypto Line: Why Ethiopia Still Bars Peer-to-Peer Birr Trading

Every regulator that bans a market is also, implicitly, conceding that the market exists. Ethiopia's reaffirmed prohibition on peer-to-peer crypto trading in birr is best read this way: not as a statement that digital assets are absent from the country, but as an...

ETB 18.5 Trillion: Ethiopia’s Digital-Finance Surge and Its Risks

A banking system can look its healthiest at precisely the moment its risks are migrating somewhere harder to see. Ethiopia's lenders are reporting cleaner books and fatter margins, even as the bulk of the country's financial activity moves onto rails the old...

Room to Trade: Regulatory Relief for Ethiopia’s Forex Bureaux

Capital that a business cannot touch is capital that cannot work. Ethiopia's foreign-exchange bureaux have long operated under exactly that constraint: a security deposit locked away with the regulator, and tight ceilings on how much cash they could hold against their...

Lighter Rules: Ethiopia Eases Account and Cash-Declaration Limits

A rule designed to control money can also quietly discourage it. For years, Ethiopians who wanted to hold a foreign-currency account had to keep a minimum balance simply to keep the account open, and anyone moving more than US$10,000 in cash through customs had to...

Forward Cover: Ethiopia Launches an FX Hedging Market

For decades an Ethiopian importer who agreed today to pay a foreign supplier in ninety days was, in effect, placing a bet they could not hedge. The price was fixed in dollars or euros; the cost in Birr would be whatever the exchange rate happened to be when the...

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